By David G. Mayes, Iain Begg, Dermot Hodson, Imelda Maher, Brian Ardy
Monetary and financial Union (EMU) includes a basic shift in macroeconomic coverage for engaging member states. Adjusting to EMU examines the layout and supply of economic, economic and supply-side guidelines in the euro region. It appraises the facility of the rising coverage structure to bring a harmonious coverage combine to 12 heterogeneous economies and the reaction of person member states to the limitations and possibilities created by way of EMU.
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Extra info for Adjusting to EMU (One Europe or Several?)
Here our research has been limited to a simple four-equation model that shows differences across countries in their responsiveness both in terms of size and speed in respect of growth, inflation, unemployment and fiscal policy. However, our focus has been not just on differences across countries but also differences across the economic cycle. Hence if economies are out of phase with each other they will be even more different in their behaviour than if they are in the same general circumstances.
Chapter 8 presents an analysis of the Irish economy, one which is well accustomed to being part of a monetary union, having been joined to sterling prior to linking to the EMS in 1979. Ireland’s phenomenal economic growth in recent years has, plainly, marked it out as a success story. Although Ireland’s economy remains strongly linked to that of the UK, potentially exposing it to risks of asymmetric shocks relative to its euro area peers, as a small open economy, it already had to develop appropriate adjustment mechanisms.
There are historical examples of growth being 1% higher over a decade. The Strategy suggests where the extra growth might come from. At the time, the success of the US economy during the 1990s would have suggested that ‘new economy’ ideas could well have something to them. The key issue in the present context is the coherence of the strategy. If the growth does not emerge then the fiscal requirements of the strategy will come under unsustainable strain. If the strategy does not deliver a sufficient increase in participation in the employment market (or reallocation of working patterns), the burden of the non-employed on the earning capacity of the employed will require considerable changes in behaviour and relative living standards.
Adjusting to EMU (One Europe or Several?) by David G. Mayes, Iain Begg, Dermot Hodson, Imelda Maher, Brian Ardy